What I Learned This Week

Why are oil prices headed relentlessly higher? Most likely because a hot war is coming to the Middle East.

We have warned for many months of rising tensions between Iran and Israel and the extreme ambitions for regional control by the young leaders of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, respectively MBS and MBZ. Geopolitical crises in the Middle East have been possible for so long that investors have become desensitized to the risks—precisely at the moment when conditions are most dangerous. Long-term clients may remember our warning on August 29, 2001, thirteen days before 9/11—“The world’s greatest threat: Islamic fundamentalists. Are energy stocks a buy?” Last issue, we wrote about the military leader of Iran, Qassem Soleimani, and how he has been preparing for modern and advanced warfare for decade…

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