What I Learned This Week

A deeper meaning of a failed Brexit.

In section 4, we discuss why we believe Brexit is dead. If that is indeed true, the implications could extend way beyond the U.K. and the E.U., and the bullish case for the euro and the pound. It may be recalled that shortly after Brexit, Donald Trump won the presidency and the world was convinced we were headed for economic nationalism, fragmentation and the breakdown of the existing order. In recent months, the success of populist parties in Italy have raised the suggestion that populism, defined as economic nationalism, is alive and well and that the election of Emmanuel Macron was the outlier. Perhaps it’s the other way around. (Our definition of the current populist wave is closer to…

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